Hi!
I will present you my exercise for tomorrow...The aim is find one quotation and comment that!
Thank you for your corrections.
“If you hear a "prominent" economist using the word 'equilibrium,' or 'normal distribution,' do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan.
The author said that life is more unpredictable than we know.
In fact, what passes for foresight is mostly just luck.
History is a series of highly improbable yet earthshaking events that seem plausible only in retrospect.
"We underestimate the share of randomness"
Yet, nowadays, people are using those statistics.
The society beings aren't ready to cope well with radical uncertainty.
That's why, It's important to update information we have. if we ever have to heed a forecast, it must keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly through time.
I think, there is a lot of information available that we can use to maybe not predict the future but to make better choices.
Moreover, in the real world, we can't predict how long "equilibrium" will last.